The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted stronger demand for renewable diesel next year while slightly cutting similar projections for ethanol usage in the January edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released Tuesday.
The agency estimated U.S. renewable diesel demand this year will average 252,000 barrels per day (b/d), up 12,000 b/d from its December forecast. The EIA’s projected demand for the drop-in fuel in 2026 at 273,000 b/d.
The latest STEO estimated 2025 renewable diesel production at 234,000 b/d, up from 231,000 b/d in December, and set its 2026 output forecast at 253,000 b/d. Renewable diesel imports this year will average 19,000 b/d, down 2,000 b/d from the December report. It set a projection for 2026 imports of 22,000 b/d.
The agency said it expects domestic biodiesel demand in 2025 will average 103,000 b/d, up 3,000 b/d from the December STEO. EIA also set its 2026 demand forecast at 100,000 b/d. EIA also said it expects biodiesel production this year will average 105,000 b/d, down 1,000 b/d from what was projected in December, and it set 2026 production at 102,000 b/d.
The agency cut its 2025 supply and demand projection for “other biofuels” – a category that includes sustainable aviation fuel and renewable naphtha – to 41,000 b/d. EIA expects supply and demand for each category to average 52,000 b/d next year. EIA also set no net imports of “other biofuels” in any of the forecast years.
The report projected U.S. liquid fuel consumption this year will average 20.54 million b/d, up from the previous month’s 20.53 million b/d forecast. The report also expects U.S. liquid fuel consumption will average 20.55 million b/d in 2026.
The January edition of STEO put global liquid fuels consumption in 2025 at 104.3 million b/d on a monthly basis, up from 103.13 million b/d last month.
Originally shared by OPIS, January 14, 2025. Title updated for clarity and purpose.