Global air travel surged to record levels last year, and airlines are consuming far less sustainable jet fuel than expected. This is a dire combination in the effort to counteract climate change, with aviation contributing about 4% of human-induced warming to date.
Most carriers have vowed to address their growing contribution to greenhouse gas emissions by using vastly more fuels derived from lower-emitting sources like used cooking oil and energy crops. Air France-KLM, Delta Air Lines Inc., and Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. are among a large group of airlines promising to consume 10% sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, by 2030.
But adoption of these cleaner fuels has been slow even as air travel jumped 10% in 2024—and 4% above pre-pandemic levels—to reach an all-time high, according to figures released last month by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). SAF accounted for about 0.3% of commercial aviation’s fuel consumption last year, according to IATA’s estimates, well below the industry group’s earlier forecast of 0.53% for 2024.
To reach 2030 targets, airlines will need to boost consumption of SAF more than 30-fold.
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“I think 10% is a target that likely won’t be met by 2030,” says Jimmy Samartzis, chief executive officer of LanzaJet Inc., which is building several sustainable fuel plants around the world, including in the US and the UK. “I think that’s just the reality across the industry.”
All of this obscures a potentially bigger problem: Even if airlines can somehow replace 10% of their fuel with lower-emitting alternatives by the end of the decade, those climate benefits would be wiped out by the industry’s expected growth. IATA predicts global air travel will grow another 8% this year.
There are also concerns about supply of SAF, as only a handful of companies have historically produced the cleaner fuels.
Several new large plants have started operating in recent months. Diamond Green Diesel, a joint venture between Valero Energy Corp. and Darling Ingredients Inc., recently started up its refinery in Texas, which can produce over 200 million gallons of SAF per year. Phillips 66, meanwhile, has converted a refinery near San Francisco to churn out renewable fuels.
In both cases, though, the refineries can toggle between producing renewable fuels for road transportation or aviation, depending on various factors, including appetite from airlines. With SAF costing at least twice as much as conventional jet fuel, it’s not clear if airlines will gobble up the available supply. Officials for Valero and Phillips 66 both declined to say how much SAF the refineries have been producing so far in 2025.
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Originally shared by Bloomberg. Title updated for purpose.